Using Regression Analysis to Predict A1c Measures

My wife, correctly, made fun of me for running a regression analysis using my morning AM blood sugar readings to predict my A1c readings.

I have data from every single morning to match up with my 7 A1c readings.

So, I tested to see if the A1c reading was most closely correlated with the 90-day, 60-day, or 30-day average of the morning readings.

It turned out that it was most correlated with the 90-day reading. For stats minded folks, here were the R-squared results:
90-day: 81%
60-day: 69%
30-day: 66%

I think I was expecting a much higher reading. Even 81% didn't seem that high given that both of these data points measured blood sugar.

On my last reading, the regression predicted a 6.6 and the actual reading was 6.3. It should be noted that the 95% highest and lowest bound was a prediction of 3.2 to 10.1!

Looks like we'll need more data to draw any conclusions.

Jan-Feb Weight Update

I'm posting to keep myself motivated to keep weight under control. I would like to stay in the low 150's. Feb was not a great month.

In Jan, I averaged 153.0 with the lowest morning reading of 151.5 and the highest of 155.

But, in Feb, I averaged 154.8. The lowest was 153 and the highest was 157.5.

The highest reading came today. Now, I need to motivate myself for March.

Increase in Lantis- tracking decline in pacreatic function through Lantus incresases

I wonder if the increase in the need for Lantus can help show the rate of decline in pancreatic output? I'm not really sure if the amount of Lantus I'm on is really a lot or not.

History of insulin after honeymoon period
Started with 6 units on 12/20/2008. Stayed at this level for 110 days
Went to 7 units on 4/8/2009 for 205 days
Went to 8 units on 10/29/2009 for 113 days.
Went to 9 units on 2/18/2010

I'll have to check with my doctor to see if there is a way to see how much insulin my pancreas is still producing.

Latest A1c Results

My latest A1c results went back in the right direction. Here is the history:

3/1/2008	14.4
5/30/2008	7.4
9/2/2008	7.2
11/19/2008	7.6
4/2/2009	7.1
7/10/2009	6.3
10/28/2009	6.8
2/5/2010	6.3

But, my blood sugar readings were occasionally hitting 200+ after a meal. So, I've gone up to 9 units.

Driving and keeping the A1c low is a lot of work.